kyleschen

Narrow-minded prediction has an analgesic or therapeutic effect. Be aware of the numbing effect of magic numbers. Be prepared for all relevant eventualities.

The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding.

We have a natural tendency to listen to the expert, even in fields where there may be no experts.

… Statistically sophisticated or complex methods do not necessarily provide more accurate forecasts than simpler ones.

The problem of lumpy payoffs is not so much in the lack of income they entail, but the pecking order, the loss of dignity, the subtle humiliations near the watercooler.

It is my great hope someday to see science and decision makers rediscover what the ancients have always known, namely that our highest currency is respect.

I presented the Black Swan as the outlier, the important event that is not expected to happen. But consider the opposte: the unexpected event that you very badly want to happen.

Art is a one-sided conversation with the unobserved.

It takes a lot of intellect and confidence to accept that what makes sense doesn’t really make sense.

The creation of something new is not accomplished by the intellect, but by play.